Two Centuries of Commodity Cycles - Dynamics of the Metals & Mining Industry in light of Modern Portfolio Theory

This thesis explores the application of Markowitz' Modern Portfolio Theory onto 220 years of financial returns for 13 metals and 21 poly-metallic ore types. The interdisciplinary research shows that poly-metallic ores can be described as naturally occurring portfolios that were diversified by natural geological processes. Safest and optimal portfolios for metals and ores can be computed for different time horizons using portfolio optimization algorithms. Results for optimized ore portfolios are thereby subject to geological constraints. The study revealed that commodity cycles last between six and twenty years and exhibit clockwise and counterclockwise motions in the risk-return framework. The cycle length differences for clockwise cycles are statistically significant and thus specific to all investigated metals and ores. By incorporating novel cycle parameters into decision making tools it is suggested that current industry decisions for resource development can be improved. Insights into the performance of metals and ores through the industrial cycles, as well as into the frequency of profitable super cycles can assist Metals & Mining executives in strategic planning and investment.:Introduction 1 Data 3 Metals & ore types studied 5 2.1 Metals.......................................... 5 2.2 Ore types ........................................ 5 2.3 Prices .......................................... 10 2.4 Summary ........................................ 12 II Analysis 13 3 Modern Portfolio Theory 15 3.1 Overview ........................................ 15 3.2 Definitions........................................ 15 3.3 Assumptions ...................................... 17 3.4 Discussion & Conclusion................................ 18 4 Poly-metallic ores as natural portfolios 19 4.1 Objectives........................................ 19 4.2 Results.......................................... 19 4.3 Summary & Discussion................................. 24 4.4 Conclusion ....................................... 25 5 Static portfolio optimization 27 5.1 Objectives........................................ 27 5.2 Assumptions ...................................... 27 5.3 Results.......................................... 27 5.4 Summary & Discussion................................. 31 5.5 Conclusion ....................................... 32 6 Dynamic portfolio optimization 33 6.1 Assumptions ...................................... 33 6.2 Results.......................................... 34 6.3 Summary & Discussion................................. 44 6.4 Conclusion ....................................... 45 7 Commodity cycles & metal assets 47 7.1 Commodity cycles ................................... 47 7.2 Commodity cycle observations ............................ 54 7.3 Summary ........................................ 76 7.4 Discussion........................................ 77 7.5 Conclusion ....................................... 78 III Application 81 8 Commodity cycles & resource development strategies 83 8.1 The timing of mine development and mining start-up................ 83 8.2 Lead times from discovery to operation........................ 88 8.3 Exploration....................................... 89 8.4 Project valuation considerations............................ 91 8.5 Summary & Discussion................................. 92 8.6 Conclusion ....................................... 93 9 Industrial cycles & modern history 95 9.1 The Metal Markets Indicator-MMI ......................... 95 9.2 The Metal Markets Indicator & the economy .................... 97 9.3 The MMI & military conflict ............................. 105 9.4 MMI cyclicality..................................... 115 9.5 Summary & Discussion................................. 122 9.6 Conclusion ....................................... 123 10 Industrial cycles & metal performance 125 10.1 Methodology ...................................... 125 10.2 Metal performance during technological epochs ................ 126 10.3 Discussion........................................ 133 10.4 Conclusion ....................................... 137 11 Industrial cycles & ore type preferences 139 11.1 Coal Age ........................................ 139 11.2 Oil Age ......................................... 142 11.3 Atomic Age....................................... 144 11.4 Discussion........................................ 146 11.5 Conclusion ....................................... 150 12 Industrial cycles & ore provinces 151 12.1 Ore genetic models and industrial cycles....................... 151 12.2 Ore geology and geography .............................. 154 12.3 Ore provenances and mining technology ....................... 156 12.4 Discussion........................................ 157 12.5 Conclusion ....................................... 157 13 The state and future of the M&M Industry 159 13.1 The current state.................................... 159 13.2 The dawn of a new Industrial Age .......................... 163 13.3 The future........................................ 164 13.4 Summary & Discussion................................. 167 13.5 Conclusion ....................................... 168 14 Summary 169 15 Conclusion 171 IV Appendix 173 Bibliography 233 Index 24

On an estimation problem for type I censored spatial Poisson processes

summary:In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the intensity of a spatial homogeneous Poisson process if a part of the observations (quadrat counts) is censored. The actual problem has occurred during a court case when one of the authors was a referee for the defense

Toning before excercise

Title: Toning before exercise Goal: The main aim of this work is to compare the exercise with the following activity with a different time interval or toning before exercise, which we can also call post-activation potentiation (PAP). Methods: In our work, we used statistical methods, a comparison method and total of our own verbal evaluations. The measurement was developed using a direct dynamic effort method. We measured the explosive strength using the Stalker ATS II sports radar, which records the speed of the dropped medicine. Throw was done in the back with a back support. Ten people from sports rugby,box, thaibox, MMA age 25-38 years were tested. We focused on the consultation with experts and coaches. Results: We sought a link between the rest interval and the resistance size for the effect of pre- activation or muscle toning. This procedure should have the effect of increasing the required performance for a certain movement or performance. Summing up the entire research section, we come to the conclusion that power upgrading and muscle toning with 85 % OM and with 6 repetitions have shown an increase in the speed of the speed of performance in all stages of rest interval. Recommended rest interval depends on strength, technical level and individual expressions. For athletes with great...Název: Tonizace před výkonem Cíle: Hlavním cílem této práce je komparace cviku benč na následnou aktivitu s různým časovým odstupem neboli tonizování před výkonem, což můžeme též nazvat post-aktivační potenciace - PAP (z angl. post-activation potentiation). Metody: Ve své práci jsme použili statistické metody, metodu komparace a vlastní celkové slovní hodnocení. Měření bylo vypracováno pomocí přímé metody dynamických úsilí. Měřili jsme explozivní sílu pomocí sportovního radaru Stalker ATS II, který zaznamenává rychlost vrženého medicinbalu. Odhod byl proveden v sedě s oporou zad. Odhod byl proveden v sedě s oporou zad. Bylo testováno 10 osob provozujících silové sporty jako, ragby, box, thaibox, MMA ve věku 25- 38 let. Zaměřili jsme se na konzultaces odborníky a trenéry. Výsledky: Hledali jsme spojitost mezi intervalem odpočinku a velikostí odporu pro efekt preaktivace neboli svalové tonizace. Tento postup by měl mít za efekt nárůst požadované výkonnosti pro určitý pohyb, nebo výkon. Shrneme-li celou výzkumnou část, dospějeme k názoru, že silové rozcvičení a svalová tonizace s 85 % OM a s 6 opakování prokázala nárůst výkonu při provádění odhodů ve všech fázích intervalu odpočinku. Doporučený interval odpočinku závisí na silové výkonnosti, technické úrovni a individuálních projevech. Pro sportovce s...AtletikaFakulta tělesné výchovy a sportuFaculty of Physical Education and Spor

Numerical Simulation Approach for a Dynamically Operated Sorption-Enhanced Water-Gas Shift Reactor

A dynamically operated sorption-enhanced water–gas shift reactor is modelled to leverage its performance by means of model-based process design. This reactor shall provide CO₂-free synthesis gas for e-fuel production from pure CO. The nonlinear model equations describing simultaneous adsorption and reaction are solved with three numerical approaches in MATLAB: a built-in solver for partial differential equations, a semi-discretization method in combination with an ordinary differential equation solver, and an advanced graphic implementation of the latter method in Simulink. The novel implementation in Simulink offers various advantages for dynamic simulations and is expanded to a process model with six reaction chambers. The continuous conditions in the reaction chambers and the discrete states of the valves, which enable switching between reactive adsorption and regeneration, lead to a hybrid system. Controlling the discrete states in a finite-state machine in Stateflow enables automated switching between reactive adsorption and regeneration depending on predefined conditions, such as a time span or a concentration threshold in the product gas. The established chemical reactor simulation approach features unique possibilities in terms of simulation-driven development of operating procedures for intensified reactor operation. In a base case simulation, the sorbent usage for serial operation with adjusted switching times is increased by almost 15%